The issue
of whether it is preferable to produce goods at home, or instead import them from
abroad, is one of the oldest topics in economics. Those who favor international
trade point to the low price and high quality of certain goods imported from
countries that have greater skill and better equipment for producing these
items. On the other hand those who prefer domestic production often argue that
when a country starts producing a certain good with which it has no prior
experience, the quality of the resulting products will be poor and expensive to
produce, so domestic goods of that sort will be unable to compete on an equal
footing with competing goods imported from countries long specialized in their
production.
However a
country’s expertise and its consequent ability to produce the good in question at
a suitable mix of price and quality, can
easily vary with time, and as a matter of fact it invariably does. Thus for
centuries the clock and watch industry in Germany ’s
Black Forest [1] was based on a handicraft
practiced by traditional artisans in small workshops and later medium-sized
factories. However once precision mechanical clockwork was replaced by electronic
devices, the Black Forest lost its competitive
advantage in manufacturing clocks and watches and the industry disappeared.
Consequently
when a country envisages establishing a new industry, it faces the issue of
whether the so-called “infant industry” will need temporary protection from the
rough winds of foreign competition. Once such industries have been set up,
their owners invariably try to prolong the protection from foreign competition
as long as they can. In many cases the new domestic manufacturer class has
managed to perpetuate protection and thus reap a constant extra profit at the
consumer’s expense.
Therefore if infant industries are to be granted protection, only producers should benefit who are unlikely to influence government policy
making in the future. This means that the government must be independent of
their political support, because the producers in question are politically powerless.
For example, for several decades after 1949 Taiwan
was ruled as a military dictatorship by a military and bureaucratic elite of
mainland Chinese who had fled mainland China after their defeat at the
hands of the Communists. This government was thus a quasi-colonial regime on
which local manufacturers had little influence. Accordingly the government was free
to reward or punish local manufacturers as it saw fit, and it imposed a strict
quality control system that prevented manufacturers from exporting shoddy goods
and established Taiwan
as a source of high-quality manufactured goods.
On the other hand in Argentina the coddled manufacturing class soon
bribed the politicians into perpetuating their privileges and inefficiency, so Argentina was
largely self-sufficient in manufactures, but their quality was mediocre so they never managed to export much. See Governing
the market, by Robert Wade.
This issue
remains as crucial as ever, as revealed by these news reports translated from
German.
The German
government has decided to buy an Israeli drone instead of its competitor from
the US ,
which is cheaper and somewhat better. The following two articles from the
German media strongly suggest that Germany
made this decision largely because Israel
has promised technical assistance toward joint development of a European drone
by Germany , France , Italy
and perhaps Spain , but not Britain . The
Israeli technical assistance will take the form of a maintenance contract for
drones to be awarded to a European firm that appears to be acting on Germany ’s
behalf. Strangely enough, the other prospective participants in the propective development
of a Eurodrone, namely France, Italy and Spain, as well as Britain, have all
bought the American competitor’s product, the Predator B from General Atomics. Accordingly
it seems that Germany alone
is footing the bill for the know-how transfer from Israel . Presumably Germany has
already figured out how to put the bite on its chums when the time is ripe.
In any
event, Germany
appears to have opted for a sirt of infant industry policy in the field of drone
manufacture.
A number
of other important issues are involved. The German government justifies its
aversion to the US prodct in part by reference to the Predator’s sinister reputation for killing
both combatants and non-combatants in sundry parts of Asia and Africa .
The German left for its part fears a trend toward self-reliant fighting
machines that might eventually become fully independent of human control.
Bundeswehr leases drones from Israel - Outrageously expensive
rent https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/drohnen-129.html
Updated June 4, 2016 04:55 a.m.
The Bundeswehr is slated to get drones that can
be fitted with weapons. The Defense Ministry has decided to lease an Israeli
model, although the purchase of American systems would have obviously been
cheaper. By Christian Thiel, tagesschau.de [a news web site]
This week Ursula von der Leyen tours the
International Aerospace Exhibition at Berlin-Schönefeld but will give a wide
berth to the booths displaying armed drones. The minister’s PR consultants wish
to avoid at all costs images of the Defense Minister against such a bellicose backdrop.
It has already been decided that such remote-controlled unmanned aircraft,
capable of being equipped with missiles and bombs, will soon appear in the
Bundeswehr’s arsenals, A new European fighter drone will be developed in the
next few years - most likely by the Airbus Group.
A bridge solution costing more than half a billion
euros
But since the drones won’t be ready at least until 2025, a temporary solution
has been proposed. In January von der Leyen announced what the solution will
be. She stated that the Israeli manufacturer IA1 wishes to lease four to six
Heron TP type drones. In other words, temporary leasing. And for a handsome
price, too: the Federal
Republic will pay EUR 580
million for a handful of Heron TP type drones. Mind you, not to buy them, but
only to lease them.
Greens expert Tobias Lindner has doubts about the
economic efficiency of the Heron deal. Lindner is a Green member of the
Bundestag [parliament] and is on its Budget and Defense Committee. He finds the
price too steep. Accordingly he has many questions for the Defense Ministry:
"The ministry has not been able to explain why the Heron TP was
selected," he says in an interview with tagesschau.de. He states that
there is no lack of competing products on the market.
Isn’t buying cheaper than leasing?
This phrase seems to refer to the competition,
namely General Atomics in the United
States . This company had offered the Germans
a comparable number of Predator type drones for sale for only 400 million
euros. Britain
recently agreed to purchase 16 Predators for the equivalent of barely 540
million euros. All this makes Lindner suspicious: "I want the Federal
Ministry of Defense to tell me: is the decision that was made actually the most
economical solution?"
Off the record, even top German generals concede
that in some respects the cheaper US drone performs somewhat better than its
Israeli counterpart. The Predator can carry a heavier weapons load, flies
faster and can stay aloft longer. These were probably the reasons why not only Britain but also Spain ,
France , Italy and the Netherlands bought the American
device.
The USA
is upset about the deal
The CEO of General Atomics, Linden P. Blue, argues
thus: "There is some interoperability among systems and this provides a
certain logistical efficiency," The Americans are quite angry about the
German decision. They are currently intensively lobbying the German politicians
who influence the budget in order to persuade them - after all, millions of
euros are at stake. A report marked confidential is in the possession of
tagesschau.de. It is from the defense technology attaché at the German Embassy
in Washington , DC . The report predicts that General Atomics
will continue to make efforts "to seek contact with top officials and
discuss this issue with members of the Bundestag."
In von der Leyen’s
office at the Bendler Block in Berlin ,
top officials meanwhile point to the alleged advantages offered by the Israeli
drone. The Bundeswehr already uses its unarmed predecessor model, they say.
Accordingly retraining will supposedly be much easier than it would be for the
American device.
[Does this reflect] political instead of
military priorities?
Even deputies from the [governing] coalition
[parties] suggests that the decision was not made so much on military as on
political grounds: they claim that von der Leyen does not want to buy from the
Americans because their Predator drones have an image problem. The United States
deploys the devices for missions that are extremely controversial from the
standpoint of international law, to wit for the targeted killing of alleged
terrorists. This circumstance and the ensuing widespread public disapproval of
such weapons systems had already been a problem for the drone plans of von der
Leyen’s predecessor in office Thomas de Maiziere. On the other hand purchase [sic]
from the Israelis was less problematical, at least in Parliament. For
decades, very intense but extremely discreet armaments cooperation has been
going on between Germany and
Israel – for the sake of the
“reason of state” postulated by Chancellor Angela Merkel and all her
predecessors, who strongly stress Israel ’s right to exist.
How Airbus benefits
And then there's Airbus, too: The deal with the
Israelis includes that the giant European armaments firm will perform the servicing
and maintenance of Heron drones. Airbus thus intends to accumulate know-how on
the unmanned planes, as shown by the grounds -- classed confidential -- alleged
for the Heron decision. They stress the smooth cooperation with Israel
and "the decisive advantages offered by the Heron solution for expanding
industrial skills with a view to building the planned European drone."
Tobias Lindner of the Greens considers such grounds
unpersuasive: "I fear that again industrial policy is being pursued and
that I will receive no answer to my question: What is the best solution for the
troops?" He and his colleagues on the Budget Committee are also upset that
Airbus will continue making money with the maintenance of the Heron drones,
even if the Group's own Euro drone is not completed on schedule - not a
completely unlikely scenario, as shown by the delays – some of them lasting
years -- on other Airbus projects like the A400M transport plane, the Tiger and
NH90 helicopters, and last but not least the Euro-Fighter.
Heron TP - First combat drones for the German armed forces
But they can also fire missiles at ground targets
and are therefore commonly known as combat drones.
Even before von der Leyen's press release,
Bundestag deputy Tobias Lindner (Greens) had confirmed that "one year
after the Minister’s programmatic decision to procure armament- capable drones
for the Bundeswehr, an Israeli model" was selected.
The Heron TP (TP stands for “turboprop”) will be
procured as a temporary solution and will later be replaced by a drone jointly
developed with other European countries, which will also be designed for
carrying weapons. Already in May 2014, Airbus Defence & Space, Dassault
Aviation of France and Alenia Aermacchi of Italy jointly submitted detailed
development proposals to political leaders.
Bridging solution expected to last until 2025
In her statement on Tuesday before the media
representatives, the Defense Minister again mentioned the successful experience
using the IAI Heron 1 UAV – suitable solely for reconnaissance purposes, and
also on lease -- in Afghanistan
(see also here).
On the subject of the Heron TP, von der Leyen said
in Berlin : "We have decided, together
with Parliament, that we will cooperate with France ,
Italy and Spain to develop a Euro-drone
However it will not be ready before 2025. Accordingly there is a gap that we
must bridge." As a bridge solution, she announced, the Inspector General
decided to negotiate with the Israeli manufacturer IAI for leasing the Heron TP
unmanned aircraft. Von der Leyen continued, "Then, when the ... contracts
[are] ready for a decision, we will review this again in detail with Parliament.
However the general course to be followed is now decided. We are planning on an
armament-capable drone, which will be the standard for the foreseeable future.
It is important in order to protect our soldiers deployed on foreign
missions."
As Thorsten Jungholt, the editor of Die Welt,
today wrote in his comment on the procurement decision, "according to
government sources," the Bundeswehr will probably lease "three to
five Heron TPs" from IAI. The UAS will be operational as of 2018. The
German party to the deal, just as previously, will be Airbus Defence &
Space (Airborne Solutions). The budget for the project, including guided
missile weaponry, is estimated at 580 million euros, according to Jungholt in Die
Welt.
Leftists warn of a "trend towards weapons
systems becoming autonomous."
As expected, the opposition was quick to react. For
the political camp of the Greens and The Left, the topic of drones --
especially combat drones – is a red flag.
The defense policy spokesperson of the Left caucus,
Christine Buchholz, waxed indignant: "Procurement of combat drones is not
about filling a capability gap, it’s about the ability to murder by remote
control!" The legislator fears that getting involved with combat drone technology
starts a trend towards weapons systems becoming autonomous, The cabinet would
thus be contributing towards an arms race that might ultimately lead to
production of fully automated combat robots.
Buchholz implores: "The Bundeswehr needs no
combat drones, because they do not protect our own soldiers, but instead are
used for killing people thousands of miles away. Already, thousands of
civilians have become the victims of drone strikes."
The Greens fear increasing "removal of the
constraints restricting warfare"
Agnieszka Brugger, the spokeswoman for Alliance 90/Greens on
security and disarmament matters, was likewise critical. Brugger suspects that
"with this decision, Ms. von der Leyen is clearing the way for combat
drones". The defense minister is blind to the risks associated with these
"highly controversial weapon systems".
The member of Parliament cites the following
grounds for her opinion: "Combat drones are deployed, more than almost any
other technology, for uses contrary to international law and are encouraging
removal of the constraints that restrict warfare. The increasing use of these
supposedly precise weapons systems is responsible for a great number of
civilian casualties and has contributed to the escalation of violence in many
conflict areas. The cabinet committed a serious blunder by saying nothing about
this to its key partners. And now it is actually joining the group of countries
desirous of possessing combat drones. Moreover so far the cabinet has done
scarcely anything to fulfill its pledge to promote an international ban on
autonomous weapons systems."
Brugger also scolds the Social Democrats:
"Instead of facing up to their responsibility, each one of them expresses
a completely different viewpoint on this issue. The SPD should be loyal to its
tradition as a party of peace and thwart the procurement of combat
drones."
For the Christian Democrats, drones are an
"indispensable additional tool for conducting operations"
Of course the Christian Democrats react very
differently. Henning Otte, the defense spokesman for the CDU-CSU parliamentary
caucus, described today's choice by the cabinet as follows: "Drones are an
indispensable additional tool for conducting military operations, because they
enable us to protect our soldiers in the field as effectively as possible, The
Bundeswehr already has extensive experience in the use of Heron 1 type drones,
which are being used in Afghanistan for reconnaissance. Unlike [sic] its
predecessor, the Heron TP offers better performance."
Moreover he states that the German Air Force is
already familiar with the Heron system. Training and supplies need not be
switched to match a different system. This saves time and enables swifter
deployment of the Heron TP system.
Moreover, Otte continues, choosing the Heron is a
decision in favor of Europe and a future European drone, "Several European
countries, including Germany ,
plan by 2025 to develop a European drone jointly. By means of the transition
Heron TP solution, the Bundeswehr and the European manufacturing consortium can
gain the valuable experience they need in order to develop a new generation of
European drones."
A very special Luftwaffe unit
The first unmanned, remotely controlled aircraft
(Remotely Piloted Aircraft, RPA) of the Heron TP type was put into service by
the Israeli Air Force in February of 2010. It had supposedly made it maiden
flight four years earlier, in July of 2006.
The armament-capable reconnaissance drone has a
wingspan of 26 meters
and is 14 meters
long. It has a maximum take-off weight of 5,300 kilograms and
can carry a payload of 1000
kg . The manufacturer specifies an operating altitude of 45,000 feet (13,716 meters ) and a
maximum flight time of up to 36 hours. The Heron TP is propelled by an 895 kW
(around 1217 horsepower) turboprop engine.
If the deal with IAI is perfected, these Israeli
drones will be assigned once more to the Luftwaffe’s 51st Immelmann[1]
Tactical Squadron stationed at Jagel Air Force Base. This squadron is our air
force’s only flying unit qualified to operate airborne reconnaissance missions,
whether manned or unmanned, for purposes of both imaging and sensing signals.
This was the goal pursued when on January 1, 2010
the 2nd or Immelmann airborne reconnaissance squadron was
restructured for operating unmanned reconnaissance systems. The Heron 1
aircraft belonging to the squadron, as mentioned before, have been deployed in Afghanistan
since March of 2010 .